2026 Housing Market Outlook

December 31, 2025

After a couple of years where the housing market felt stuck in neutral, 2026 may be the year things shift back into gear. Expert forecasts show more people are expected to move – and that could open the door for you to do the same.



More Homes Will Sell

With all of the affordability challenges at play over the past few years, many would-be movers pressed pause. But that pause button isn’t going to last forever. There are always people who need to move. And experts think more of them will start to act in 2026 (see graph below):

What’s behind the change? Two key factors: mortgage rates and home prices. Let’s dive into the latest expert forecasts for both, so you can see why more people are expected to move next year.


Mortgage Rates Could Continue To Ease

The #1 thing just about every buyer has been looking for is lower mortgage rates. And after peaking near 7% earlier this year, rates have started to ease.



The latest forecasts show that could continue throughout 2026, but it won’t be a straight line down (see graph below):

There’s a saying: when rates go up, they take the escalator. But when they come down, they take the stairs. And that’s an important thing to remember. It’ll be a slow and bumpy process.


Expect modest improvement in mortgage rates over the next year but be ready for some volatility. There will be volatility along the way as new economic data comes out. Just don’t let it distract you from the bigger picture: the overall trend will be a slight decline. Forecasts say we could hit the low 6s, or maybe even the high 5s.


And remember, there doesn’t have to be a big drop for you to feel a change. Even a smaller dip helps your bottom line.

If you compare where rates are now to when they were at 7% earlier this year, you’re already saving hundreds on your future mortgage payment. And that’s a really good thing. It’s enough to make a real difference in affordability for some buyers.


Home Price Growth Will Be Moderate

What about prices? On a national scale, forecasts say they’re still going to rise, just not by a lot. With rates down from their peak earlier this year, more buyers will re-enter the market. And that increased demand will keep some upward pressure on prices nationally – and prevent prices from tumbling down.


So, even though some markets are already seeing slight price declines, you can rest easy that a big crash just isn’t in the cards. Thanks to how much prices rose over the last 5 years, even the markets seeing declines right now are still up compared to just a few years ago.


Of course, price trends will depend on where you are and what’s happening in your local market. Inventory is a big driver in why some places are going to see varying levels of appreciation going forward. But experts agree we’ll see prices grow at the national level (see graph below):

This is yet another good sign for buyers and overall affordability. While prices will still go up nationally, it’ll be at a much more sustainable pace. And that predictability makes it easier to plan your budget. It also gives you peace of mind that prices won’t suddenly skyrocket overnight.


Bottom Line

After a quieter couple of years, 2026 is expected to bring more movement – and more opportunity. With sales projected to rise, mortgage rates trending lower, and price growth slowing down, the stage is set for a healthier, more active market.


So, the big question: will you be one of the movers making 2026 your year?



Connect with a Martino agent if you want to get ready.

Why More Homeowners Are Giving Up Their Low Mortgage Rate

December 24, 2025
If you’re like a lot of homeowners, you’ve probably thought: “I’d like to move… but I don’t want to give up my 3% rate.” That’s fair. That rate has been one of your best financial wins – and it can be hard to let go. But here’s what you need to remember… A great rate won’t make up for a home that no longer works for you. Life changes, and sometimes, your home needs to change with it. And you’re not the only one making that choice. The Lock-In Effect Is Starting To Ease Many homeowners have been frozen in place by something the experts call the lock-in effect. That’s when you won’t move because you don’t want to take on a higher rate on your next home loan. But data from Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows the lock-in effect is slowly starting to ease for some people. The share of homeowners with a mortgage rate below 3% ( the yellow in the graph below ) is slowly declining as more people move. And while some of the people with a rate over 6% are first-time buyers, the number of homeowners with a rate above 6% ( the blue ) is rising as others take on higher rates for their next home:

How To Find the Best Deal Possible on a Home Right Now

December 18, 2025
Want to know how to find the best deal possible in today’s housing market ? Here’s the secret. Focus on homes that have been sitting on the market for a while. Because when a listing lingers, sellers tend to get more realistic – and, more willing to negotiate. And that’s where the savviest buyers are finding homes other buyers overlook. The Opportunity: 1 in 5 Homes Has Had a Price Cut This Year According to Realtor.com , about 1 in every 5 listings (20.2%) have dropped their asking price at least once. And while so many things in today’s housing market vary by region, that number is consistent throughout the country. That tells you one thing… No matter where you live, there’s a chance to score a better deal. You just need to know where to look. And that’s where your agent comes in. The Tactic: Target Homes That Have Been Sitting the Longest Your agent can help you identify which homes have been on the market the longest. Those are the ones where you’re more likely to get a discount. That’s because the seller may be getting frustrated their house hasn’t sold yet, so they’re more willing to play ball. And since a lot of buyers steer clear of homes that aren’t selling, you may be the only offer they get. So, you can lean in and push for a better deal. As Realtor.com explains: “Less competition means fewer bidding wars and more power to negotiate the extras that add up: closing cost credits, home warranties, even repair concessions . . . these concessions can end up knocking thousands of dollars off the price of a home .” And they’re not the only ones calling out the opportunity you have right now. Bankrate also says: “During the quieter fall and winter months, when fewer prospective buyers are shopping, home sellers may be more willing to lower their prices, or offer concessions, to attract those prospective buyers who are still looking. ” And the proof is in the data. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows a clear pattern: the longer a home stays on the market, the lower it tends to sell for compared to the original asking price.

4 Reasons Your House Is High on Every Buyer’s Wish List This Season

December 11, 2025
When the holidays roll around, travel plans, family gatherings, and all the chaos of the season may make you think it’s better to pull your listing off the market or to wait until 2026 to sell your house . But here’s the thing.  Waiting could mean missing out on a great window of opportunity. Because while other sellers are stepping away, you can lean in – and that might actually give you the edge. Here are 4 reasons selling now may be the better bet. 1. Buyers This Time of Year Are Serious Don’t let the season fool you. While casual browsers tend to step back around the holidays, serious buyers stay in the game. The people looking for homes right now usually aren’t just browsing. They’re ready to make a move and they usually want to close before the new year. As Zillow says: “While more buyers have tended to shop in the spring and summer months, those shopping in the winter are likely to be motivated — often moving because of a job relocation, change in financial situation, or change in family needs.” Their timelines are real and missing them would create a hassle for the buyer, so they’re eager to get the deal done. And that’s exactly the kind of buyer you want to work with. 2. You Have Control Over Your Schedule (and Showings) Some homeowners decide not to sell this time of year because they don’t want to juggle showings during the holiday rush. They’re anticipating traveling to see family and thinking about buyers in their home only adds another layer of complexity. But here’s what no one’s reminded them. You can control your showings and can set times that work for your schedule. You don’t have to stop your plans to keep your sale on track. The right agent can help you manage your calendar, your showings, and your stress level. 3. Other Sellers May Step Back, Which Means Less Competition Because fewer sellers tend to list this time of year, the number of homes for sale usually falls a bit. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS , explains: “As we approach the end of the year, listing activity tends to slow and would-be sellers decide to wait until after the new year to list . . .” And in a year when inventory has been steadily rising, that seasonal slowdown works in your favor. With the potential for fewer sellers on the market, your house will stand out. So, a seasonal dip in listings could help you get noticed , especially if your home is priced right and presented well. 4. Homes Decorated for the Holidays Can Feel More Inviting You may not realize it, but seasonal decor can actually help you appeal to buyers. Maybe it’s that they have an easier time picturing themselves making memories in the home. Maybe it just feels cozier and more inviting. Whatever the reason, it works. Sometimes tasteful seasonal touches can make it easier to sell your house. But don’t go overboard. Keep your choices simple to let your home’s charm shine through. Bottom Line There are plenty of good reasons to put (or keep) your house on the market during this time of year. If you want to talk strategy for how to make the most of this season in your market, connect with a Martino Realty Group agent.